In the ongoing “secret” negotiations between Jorge Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez, Special Assistant to President Biden and Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere, the significance of free and fair elections has emerged as a primary focus.
This issue has remained at the forefront of discussions involving Nicolas Maduro’s regime and the opposition, with U.S. State Department involvement. Since 1999, numerous agreements and pacts have been made by chavismo only to be subsequently ignored, a pattern that has persisted. In every negotiation, chavismo adheres to the Venezuelan adage “cómo quedo yo ahí?“, meaning “what’s in it for me?” Unfortunately, the answer to this question does not align with the prospect of free and fair elections.
The reality is that under chavismo, free and fair elections will remain an impossibility due to one undeniable factor: imprisonment. Every high-ranking official within Maduro’s corrupt administration is acutely aware that should free and fair elections lead to a shift in power, they would face the loss of their immunity, freedom, and ill-gotten gains, along with facing prosecution and harsh legal consequences. Once a genuinely democratic government establishes itself in Venezuela, the options for chavista criminals to escape will be extremely limited and unappealing. This understanding drives Maduro’s stance.
Following the Barbados agreement, sanctions were lifted, and Alex Saab was pardoned as a result of the discussions between Gonzalez and Rodriguez. Maduro achieved his objectives, but what did the Venezuelan populace gain? Have their living conditions or futures improved in any significant way over recent months? It was never in Maduro’s interest to concede to anything that would jeopardize his “what’s in it for me?” mindset. The well-being of Venezuela and its citizens is not a priority for him; increased oil revenue doesn’t concern him either. Negotiators must come to terms with the fact that the welfare of the people holds no weight with Maduro and his associates, who remain indifferent to the hardships of the populace. Sanctions are also of little consequence, as numerous traders and nations are eager to engage in commerce with PDVSA.
Maduro succeeded in obtaining what he had previously lacked—temporary sanctions relief to bolster his campaign funds for the upcoming elections, along with the release of Alex Saab. What happens next? Maduro is akin to an individual who possesses everything; what remains to be offered? Democracy?
Free and fair elections? The U.S. administrations under both Trump and Biden merely handed Maduro more of what he desired: increased control and subsequently greater power. Both administrations inadvertently solidified Maduro’s authority.
Collaborations with Chevron, Repsol, ENI, Shell, and Trinidad have been encouraged, further enhancing Maduro’s already substantial influence. Venezuela’s subservient Supreme Court will not rule against him, while the head of the Electoral Council, who unlawfully barred Maria Corina Machado in the past, will not permit her candidacy again. Moreover, the Venezuelan army, reported to be the second most corrupt in the world, continues to generate billions through drug trafficking.